Thursday, October 25, 2012

Power Rankings: Midseason Edition (Weeks 3-7)

So very delinquent with this post, but all good things are worth the wait. A lot has happened in the NFL and in fantasy since Week 2. We've seen pro and fantasy teams rise and pro and fantasy teams fall. Below are my nominations for the Midseason Fantasy All-Stars and the Midseason Fantasy All-Sucks. I rate them based on pre-season expectations, price, and performance to date. Feel free to throw some of your own names out there.

Mid Season All-Stars

QB Robert Griffin III (Hon. Mention: Matt Ryan)

Sure, Aaron Rodgers has turned it on the last two weeks and taken over the top spot, and Drew Brees has had to throw his way to a 2-4 record, but the fact that RG3 is right there at 3rd deserves the nod. Cheap price, low expectations, monster performance. Seems to fit the bill perfectly. What's even better is that he's fun to watch live. It's as much fun as I can possibly have watching a Redskin succeed, which isn't much, but at least it's something.

For Matt Ryan we heard all the rumors of a hurry-up passing attak, saw Julio Jones pick it up in the preseason and yet there only really seemed to be two believers come draft time: me and Matty rIce. At $26 this was a steal thus far.

RB Alfred Morris (Hon. Mention: Stevan Ridley)
RB Arian Foster (Hon. Mention: Frank Gore)

Anytime you can get the 3rd best running back off the free agent pool you've hit the jackpot. What has been really impressive is this hasnt been a case of just a couple good games. He has been solidly consistent week to week and just looks like a fantastic fit in that old Shanahan zone blocking, stretch running game. Sure Arian Foster was  a potential number 1 pick heading into the season but he has just been leaps and bounds better than every other running back and he wasn't even the most expensive, unlike Megatron. He's averaging 4 points more per game than the 2nd best running back. Just pure dominance in this first half for Foster.

Stevan Ridley went for $17, but it was hard to expect him to break out to be a RB1 in the first half simply due to the fact he's a Patriot running back. But he has shown great power and durability in that run game and even in a committee setting at Brandon Bolden's height he was still quite useful and valuable. For Frank Gore he went for $16 same as Ridley but most had already written Gore's epitaph. The running ability I've seen from Gore has simply shocked me this season. He looks like 25 year old Frank Gore, not 29 year old Frank Gore. That Seattle game last week was icing on the cake of a great first half.

WR Percy Harvin (Hon. Mention: Reggie Wayne)
WR Randall Cobb (Hon. Mention: James Jones)
WR AJ Green (Hon. Mention: Andre Roberts)

Percy Harvin touches the ball more than any receiver in this league, and just like Randall Cobb has scored three ways: running the ball, catching the ball, and returning the ball. He has turned in a top 3 performance this first half and just like Alfred Morris seems to be a same and consistent bet week to week. Randall Cobb is a poor man's Percy Harvin, used in identical ways. Why I like him here is that with or without Jennings, I don't think he loses value because of the packages he plays in. The $1 price tag for the 12th best receiver is nice. AJ Green wasn't receiving the same love as his draft mate Julio Jones. Sure AJ Green was touted as a WR1 and drafted as such, but unlike Julio Jones, AJ Green has grown in Year 2 and even when hes the focal point of the defense like against Pittsburgh last week he finds a way to score. Getting the best receiver in the first half at the 8th highest price is a good deal.

Just like Frank Gore, Reggie Wayne was written off for dead only to rejuvenate himself under Luck. He doesn't find the end zone a lot, but he sure will be a leader in targets at the end of the season. Couldn't ask for more out of $11. James Jones has been a beneficiary of circumstances but you can't ignore the 3 straight weeks of multiple touchdowns. For the always acceptable price of free you'll take it every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Everyone was looking to find the complement to Fitzgerald in Arizona. Is it Michael Floyd? Early Doucet? Nope. it's Andre Roberts who has actually been the msot valuable WR in Arizona. When you can step up and outperform Fitzgerald for half a season you deserve the honorable mention nod.

TE None. (Hon. Mention: Owen Daniels)

I don't think there has really been an all-star at the position. The number 1 TE Gronkowski is way down off his pace from last year and no TE has really served as a game changer this first half. Owen Daniels gets the nod as the #3 TE that went undrafted. Daniels had the talent but never the health and always Joel Dreesen there to steal some thunder. 9 pts a game is a nice return at the spot without spending a dollar there.

K Greg Zeurlein

Kickers don't cost anything, but some of them are actually game changers. For instance my Gostkowski has put up double digits points in every week but 1 and certainly helped keep my team afloat while it dealt with injuries and poor performances, but what Zeurlein is doing is awesome. The Rams will kick from anywhere and with the exception for that little mini slump two weeks ago he's crushing it. It's fun to watch whenever Redzone Channel goes to the Rams for yet another 50 yarder by Zeurlein.

DEF Chicago

This is the Bears defense from 2008. Picking off passes and scoring touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Sacking every QB and allowing the fewest points. Ridiculously good first half for the Bears and just like Gostkowski for me, they have really helped Raider Nation stay afloat while he deals with injuries and inconsistencies from players like McCoy and Romo.

Mid Season All Sucks

QB Matt Stafford (Hon. Mention: Cam Newton)

Pretty simple analysis here. You don't spend $51 for the 21st best QB. Detroit's offense has been horrible and with Megatron taken away and no one else stepping up the offense can't move the ball. Stafford has been fortunate to even be 21st with 3 tds in the last two weeks coming in the 4th quarter at the end of games.

Cam Newton is a little different, but again 16th overall QB is not worth $40. Cam's floor isn't as low as Stafford's because he can be so successful running the ball for yardage and tds. Every 60 rushing yards is basically another passing td for QBs like Brees and Brady, but his passing is awful. Also being outscored by Vick who is the most maligned QB this side of Matt Cassel this year is worth the honorbale bust mention.

RB Steven Jackson (Hon. Mention: Matt Forte)
RB Darren McFadden (Hon. Mention: Ryan Mathews)

Boy those were some big names heading into the draft, I think they comprise likely 4 of the top 15 projected backs (prior to Mathews injury). For Steven Jackson he did get hurt, but has played every game. What has killed his value is Daryl Richardson in the passing game. Steven Jackson prior to this year was the reliable 3 down back catching 40-50 passes a year. He's on pace for about half that much. The team just doesn't seem to trust his durability this year and with Gronkchitis spending $36 on the #24 running back that's a bust right there.  McFadden has been healthy all season and if you told every fantasy football player that you would get  6 out of 6 healthy games from McFadden to start the season they'd pay $42 for him in a heartbeat everytiem and fully expect to see him in the top 3. Noooooope. #21. Either the O-Line or Run DMC or both can't seem to figure out the zone blocking scheme put in by Dennis Allen, even after their bye. It's gotta be time to scrap this and salvage a fully healthy season from McFadden.

Matt Forte got hurt but has appeared in 5 games. His yds/gm, ypc, and catches/gm are all way down from last year. Michael Bush is much more talented than Chester Taylor and may continue to steal touches as teh Bears start to prep for what will surely be a postseason run this year. Ryan Mathews was the msot injured player on this list based on games missed, but even in his return he has been uninspiring for a $30+ price tag. He has fumbled, been jerked around by Norv Turner, and left out of 3rd down packages. It's nto even clear he has goal line duties or whether Jackie Battle has those. It was a gambled taken and just ahsn't pid dividend in this first half.

WR Hakeem Nicks (Hon. Mention: Dez Bryant)
WR Steve Smith (Hon. Mention: Andre Johnson)
WR Brandon Lloyd (Hon. Mention: Calvin Johnson)

Nice to see the top 3 receivers I drafted on this list in one capacity or another. I try to keep injured players off of this since its not exactly performance based but you can't ignore it when its a significant investment. Nicks has played 3 out of 7 games this year and only 1 was useful. You just dont spend $25 for 1 game. Hopefully he has recovered. Steve Smith has been held out of the endzone and this is starting to resemble Steve Smith 2010 before Newton showed up. Newton has really had struggles as a passing QB and Steve Smith is getting tired of it. Probably should of held out for something better with Sproles. Brandon Lloyd has been the biggest disappointment, especially with Hernandez out. It seems like Brady is a little afraid to sit back in that pocket and unleash the deep ball to him. Welker, Woodhead, and Gronk have really benefitted from Brady's skittishness the last few weeks.

Dez is out in my book, both as a Cowboys fan and fantasy player. The guys is so inconsistent. Sure I only paid $14 for him, but the guy supposedly had such awesome talent. Yeah talent for mental lapses and dropped balls. Just very disappointing. Andre Johnson is clearly on the downhill of his career arc. Sitting at #27 among receivers and without his bye yet he maybe struggle to find his way back into even WR2 territory He's no lonegr putting up the 12 catch 150 yard performances he put up in his prime. Now hes more of an 8 catch 7 yard guy with a td every third game. Calvin may seem like an odd choice here, but unlike Arian Foster, Calvin just hasn't been able to be leaps and bound better than everyone. In fact he isn;t even in the top 12 of receivers. Just way too much money for too little production. It's not his fault, the offense sucks and theres no one to take heat off of him in either the passing game or running game but that doesn't matter for fantasy's sake.

TE Jimmy Graham

Gronk wasn't worth his 37 dollars despite being the number 1 TE, Graham as the number 11 wasn't worth 38. Lesson learned about what I talked about in the preseason. These guys simply arent worth the investment, at least through the first half.

K None

Kickers dont really bust.

DEF Baltimore

Kind of hard to get a bust defense too but when you spend $4 on one and they are currently ranked 12th and will be lower than that after their bye week, its kind of a bust. Those extra few dolalrs may have won you another big time player you wouldve rather had earlier in the draft.

As I said feel free to comment on your favorite stars and sucks in the comments section. On to the rankings:


1. Matty rIce (Previous: 8)

This is a monster jump, but of course 5 weeks have happened since the last rankings. Every year there is a team that wins the waiver wire lottery and overcomes a semi-poor draft to become a frotn runner. This is that team. Despite 100 dollars worth of El Busto in Murray and Johnson this team sits in 4th place in the standings, has already gone through the bye for 3 of his 4 most expensive players (with the 4th one this week), and has owned the waiver wire/$1 bargain bin special. Andre Roberts, Randall Cobb, and Alfred Morris has kept this team afloat and with Ray Rice playing well enough and Matt Ryan lighting up the skies this team has become quite formidable down the stretch.

Raider Nation (Previous: 1)

Not much to say here, this team has done exactly what I projected. Matt Forte and Jeremy Maclin being injured certainly hurts but it doesn't sound too bad for Forte and I doubt Maclin misses much more than a week if any time and this team is deep enough to survive a week or two without them. Roll on Raider Nation.

2. Call Me Brady? (Previous: 7)

Best record in the league and I'm taking a total bad call medal for both Lynch and Gore. They look great. Even against each other last week in a matchup of great defenses they both looked liek top 15 backs. RG3 has made him forget all about the awful stink Rivers has made this season. The WR corps is good if not underperforming a little, Mike Wallace and Julio Jones have been fine and you worry a little about Wes Welker with Hernandez back, but that nitpicking. This team is solid and with one more win I think this team clinches its first playoff spot in 4 tries.


3. My Vick in a Box (Previous: 2)

Yeah kinda weird having a 3-4 team here but Rodgers and Foster are hot right now. Hasnt missed a beat on Jennings with James Jones and over the last several weeks has been putting up top point totals. You do have to worry about a team that hasnt yet seen the Packers and Texans on bye, but this team squeaks in the playoffs I think.

Choppa (Previous: 4)

I'm not sure what I think about this team. He put up a good fight against in week 1 and beat #2 in week 2. Obviously his team is good I just worry a little bit about that WR corps and Trent Richardson may be a hot and cold RB going forward with the limited offensive production at the QB position and you just dont see a whole lot of mega game production on this team. It is solid in several spots and my loss is his gain with Hernandez going down for a month+. After this week he will have played #2 and #4 on this list. Road gets easier and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hanging around this spot for awhile.

4. Lamborghini Percy (Previous: 5)

Monster. Simply put. A fantasy monster these last several weeks. The WRs can't do it forever, so you expect a regression but man what a run for those 4 plus the Hosuton defense. I still have a hard time trusting a team that consistently starts two Saints running backs and employs Michael Vick, but this team has been riding the WR wave. Also getting close to nailing down a playoff spot with that 5-2 record.

5.  Deep Pockets (Previous: 6)

I'm not sure what to make of this team. Jordy Nelson has finally been breaking out, it is 5-2, and it is 6th in points but I find myself looking at the team and thinking, this can't be that good of a team. The MoJo injury hurts and now he's left with Mikel LeShoure and either a piece of the Pittsburgh or Carolian committees. He's not higher because of this and because I just am not sure this is a good team. But being 5-2 puts you in the drivers seat for the playoffs and thats all that matters.

6. Raider Nation (Previous: 1)

Hasn't been a good run lately as McCoy and Forte have been disappointments and all of the sudden Tony Romo isn't a viable fantasy quarterback. Further, the WR corps I thought so highly of has simply been meh. The team is hanging on here with a 3-4 record and faces a tough do or die matchup with my team for playoff position. You get the feeling this team can come around, but theres always a team that underperforms and this one might be it.

7. The Big Gostkowski (Previous: 4)

I waffled between putting myself 6th or 7th and gave it to Raider Nation because I'm still staring at a big point deficiency compared to other top team. This is another good week to rectify that. I hit the injury lottery for the next few weeks with Rashad Jennings who was just a throw in in that big Brady deal. My team is getting healthy with Nicks and Hernandez back and could be firing on all cylinders this week. I still have to endure a Patriots bye week next week (which I've softened slightly with waiver pick ups this week). I like all of the teams in the top 9 have legitimate shots at the playoffs. This week is a big game for that to get back to 4-4.

8. Choppa (Previous: 3)

Big drop for this team. he's hanging around at 4-3, but you get the sense that this team might start a big free fall. His Bengals are on bye, he can't get consistent RB2 production since his trade, Richardson is likely more hurt than he's letting on and his WRs are patchwork at best. In addition he's got back to back games against playoff contenders. Wouldn't be surprised to see him at 4-5 in the next ranking addition and sitting in the same 8th spot.

9. SUHkkake Ejections (Previous: 9)

Winning two games by less than 1 point combined is quite fortunate and yet this team is still only 4-3. The supposed strength of this team at RB has turned into a major liability and the $51 spent on Stafford is looking like one of the worst picks in the league this year. Yet he still sits at 6th and obviously has some nice mojo going for him in those close games. I fully expect this team to drop out of the playoff race byt the end of season.

10. Blood Sweat and Beers (Previous: 11)

Got a little bit of momentum there over the last few weeks and there is some talent here. White, AP, Brees, and Austin are all good players. What seems unfortunate is having to start two TEs or working on his 4th Arizona RB. Also working against him is the tremendously slow start he's had. At 2-5 you are really facing an uphill battle that gets no easier facing two teams the next two weeks with a combined 11-3 record. We may be writing the obituary on this team in the next rankings.

11. I GOT GRONKCHITIS!!! (Previous: 10)

Can't catch a break as he has the 5th most points but highest points against and a 1-6 record. You can't write off a guy yet but I'd think based on the current standings he'd have to run the table to make the playoffs. His team has gotten healthier with Spiller and Bradshaw back but just needs some kind of WR production besides dropping TDs in the un Josh Gordon. Torrey Smith and Spiller on bye this week might just end the season. Unless Cam can unleash a fantasy monster against the Bears. Highly unlikely.

12. Mr. Carlson's Class (Previous: 12)

Well you know your season is a bust when you finished week 2 ranked 12th and 5 weeks later you are ranked 12th. When you look back on that Brady trade it looked like a Brady for Green-Ellis, Bryant, and Luck deal with some spare parts thrown in there. I'd like to go back and do a final analysis on this trade at the end of the year but it's clear Green-Ellis and Bryant have been busts where I'm getting some encouraging work from DHB and now Rashad Jennings probably have 2-4 weeks of crunch time play for me. Luck has been solid, but Brady has been consistent and thats what the trade was for. But this wasn't a steal for either team. Maybe i'll come out ahead if DHB keeps on the field and Rashad has some monster games, but the real point is that besides this trade this team has still been bad. Jamaal Charles had two monster games to help this team win two games but there isnt much else there. Thomas has been up and down and so has Graham. But when you are about 9 points per week worse than the next lowest scorer your team just isn't good.

I'd say at this point the playoff race has narrowed to 9 teams and that likely wont change by next rankings. For you other three at least there is still money to be had. Until next time good luck to everyone!




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