First order of business, in case you missed it or forgot check out the historical power rankings for a summation of the last 3 years. The link is in the opening post of this blog.
Interesting draft in this league this year. I think spending
was curbed overall compared to last year. You can see it in several teams
leaving over several dollars at the end. The worst culprit for failure to spend
this year was certainly Keller. He obviously had a price for everyone and stuck
to it and ended up spending $42 on Torrey Smith and Willis McGahee. Not bad
picks in themselves but awful values together. They shouldve been had for 30 or
less.
With that in mind I thought it might be interesting to see
how much the winning team from last year went for this year. Among Lee's title
winning players he had Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, MoJo, Gronk, Julio
Jones, AJ Green, Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, and Ahmad Bradshaw. This year those
players cost a combined $291, not including the remaining 7 players on the
roster. That's how you win, finding the values And before you say, well yeah
anyone can pick up monsters like Victor Cruz off waivers, Lee drafted 6 of those
guys and traded for the others. The
title is likely drafted and likely drafted in the middle late rounds.
This draft was also unique in that I don't feel like we have
a runaway "draft winner". It was really hard for me to rank these
individually, so think of each group as a tier. 1-3 are my best bets for
playoffs, 4-6 are my best guess at playoff contenders, 7-9 can be contenders
but I think they are missing too much, and 10-12 are my best bets for missing
the playoffs without seriously contending.
1. Raider Nation - Brian got in there early, dropping nearly $190 in the first 80 picks. It is one of those all around solid teams that doesn't particularly wow you, but you look it up and down and say well, there just aren't too many weaknesses. A WR corps of Maclin, Johnson, and Decker could easily be the best in the league, including over Slavin's Marshall, Fitz, Cruz trio, but they come with a much, much greater risk. Johnson can't play 16 games ever, Maclin has never actually put it all together for one season, and Decker may either be a fluke or could be without Peyton Manning for weeks at a time if his neck can't withstand the punishment, depressing his value. Forte and McCoy are probably the best RB tandem in the league and despite what everyone says Romo is not a bad QB and in fantasy actually is quite valuable. I like this team and I liked this draft. When you can get out of it with one of the 5 or 6 elite players and still have a very well rounded team you have to be happy.
Best Value - Decker at $13. All reports indicate he's getting the most targets and is going to be the most effective with Manning's limited deep game. Welker has made fantasy gold in the short/intermediate game with a highly accurate QB and getting Decker for half the price is the definition of value.
Worst Value - This is really hard. You'd like to say Forte at $37, but then you look around the league and see S-Jax at $36, DeMarco Murray at $43, Jamaal Charles at $38 and it seems like this was just the right price here. I think it might have to Andre Johnson. I love Andre, but he's never hit double digit TDs in a season in his career, he clearly has an injury history, and he's not getting any younger. At $29 you could have found safer choices like Welker or splurged just a couple more dollars for super high upside players like Julio Jones or AJ Green. It's nitpicking but it was probably the worst value.
2. My Vick in a Box - $112 in two players is AWFULLY risky. It's made even more risky where he has almost a black hole at RB2 (unless NE actually stays consistent with their backs) and a question mark at flex. But, Rodgers and Foster are good for like 50 a week. He's already half way towards a win. What puts this team over the top is the receiving corps. $55 for Jennings, Bowe, Jackson and Finley should make up for the other holes on the team. You can never predict injury and based on that, I think there is plenty of scoring here for a playoff spot for sure. But he knows in the back of his mind he's one Foster hamstring or Rodgers ACL from being busted. Good luck.
Best Value - DeSean Jackson. I think the league, including myself, fell asleep at the switch here. Sure it can be frustrating to see weeks of 2 catches for 24 yards, but those 4 or 5 weeks a year when he throws down 120 and 2 tds on 4 catches wins you the week. For $4 that's ridiculous. I actually had him priced at $15 and if I was actually paying attention this would never have happened.
Worst Value - Aaron Rodgers. I know its an awesome and logical pick but this happened last year too and I lamented it. Tom Brady goes for $10 cheaper for 2.5ish less points per week. Just doesn't make Rodgers worth the 5% premium.
3. MendenhallyRasharded - Reversed field in this year's draft. After getting burned by a lack of depth despite the most expert-worthy pickup of Victor Cruz before 99% of the people knew who he was last year, I stayed patient and flexible. Of course behind the veneer of those words of confidence lies a sweaty man in a wife beater looking at Andrew Luck and Josh Freeman as his QBs. In an NFL where passing is king and elite QBs get you a great weekly foundation for points, spending $8 at QB is going way to the other extreme. It wasn't by design either. But, there is a good chance Luck cashes in on the myriad of garbage time points Stafford did last year if Luck can stay upright. The Colts will be behind and there is no question of Luck's talent. But of course he doesn't have Megatron. Otherwise the other skill positions are solid and deep. Nicks, Bryant, Lloyd, CJ0K (i keep doing this as an anti-jinx measure), and Hernandez have a lot of week to week talent. If injuries should befall players on my team or others I have a stable of reserves and lottery tickets like Tate, Garcon, Williams, and Rodgers. I don't rely too heavily on sleepers but I am one hit away from a monster skill position lineup. Its these players that win a title, not Aaron Rodgers or LeSean McCoy. Either way this team doesn't lack for talent comparably and is a clear-cut playoff team.
Best Value - Dez Bryant. Look I hate him. I am a Cowboys fan and I hate what he has been for 2 full years and an offseason. He hasn't been production enough to warrant the attitude problems. But, he's a 3rd year receiver, in a system where he may now have more targets coming his way the whole season due to injury across the board and he was $14 bucks. He has elite top 5 WR potential and at $14 the floor is high enough to bear that risk/reward.
Worst Value - It really is hard to see a worst value objectively on my team. I spent no more than $39 dollars anywhere and only $20+ for 3 players, all of whom deserved it. Green-Ellis is probably the candidate for bust potential and wasting 10% of my budget. Who knows what he is capable of in Cincy and how much the system in NE benefitted his value, but $19 seems high for him.
4. Choppa - It's clear he's trying to recreate his youthful
magic with Trent Richardson, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Martin, David Wilson and
Robert Turbin. I'm pretty sure I wrote last year that he relied too much on
youth in AJ Green and Julio Jones and I got served. In addition to the youth he supplemented it
with "veterans" Rob Gronkowski and AJ Green (two returning members to
the championship squad) and the ultimate veteran Peyton Manning. Its absolutely
bizarre seeing the highest price member of this team be a TE but thats the
state of today's NFL. This is clearly another boom bust team and I wont be on
the short end this time. I like the overall talent of this team even though he
left $14 on the board. Playoffs for Choppa.
Best Value: I'd like to answer this at the end of the
season, since it would be Peyton if hes even 85% of his old self. But right now
it has to be Trent Richardson. $26 is too cheap for a rookie running back
behind the league's most dominate O-Lineman (singular) even with the injury
concern. If he stands upright for even 13 games I think he's easily RB1
material.
Worst Value: Gronk. Blasphemy, I know. I also know that when
you take away every single TD from last year and just keep his yards he is
still the #2 TE from last year. But it is $37 and that is clearly paying for
last year's stats when it's virtually impossible to see that return again. Also I rant about this further down on Jimmy Graham. The same thoughts apply.
5. Star of David Akers - Not a rookie of auctions, but a rookie of this league, he sure wasn't shy. He blew his budget in the first 66 picks and it is hard to see a fault with his team. Every now and then you get a team that runs through its money fast but responsibly. While I think Harvin was a complete mistake, staring down that WR corps of Marshall, Fitz, Cruz, Steve Smith, Harvin and Vick as QB will give opposing teams nightmares for the weeks it's healthy. Of course no one can draft Vick assuming health despite what his Kevlar vest manufacturer says and I would've liked to see an insurance policy on Vick instead of Smith or Harvin. Michael Turner is so overrated he might actually be underrated. There were no signs of him slowing down last year and $22 seems cheap. That being said he has a lot of wear on those treads and his breakdown is imminent at any time. If he doesn't carry the load this team sits on black holes for RBs unless and until one of his lottery tickets pays off. This is a potent team to start but it might suffer from a lack depth going forward, unless one of those WRs gets traded.
Best Value - I would love to say Vick. After all even $18 for 10 games of Vick is worth it, but no contingency plan was made. I think Turner has enough left in the tank for at least a big TD year and certainly good RB value. At $22 it's a bargain.
Worst Value - Harvin for $24. This is purely based on need and timing. This changes with a trade but you can't start five receivers and $24 could be better spent elsewhere.
6. Deep Pockets - This was a team that failed to get off the blocks in the draft, not dropping coin until pick #32. Then it was MoJo. This is either really good value or Mendenhall. Because thats what I paid last year, $39 for grade A shit. Even if you believe MoJo can buck the trend of long-term holdout running backs succeeding, he's not startable for at least 1-2 weeks and may take 4-5 weeks to get going, just like CJ0K. With only 13 weeks it's hard to spend 20% on a guy who will contribute below value for more than a 1/3 of the season. The rest of the team is solid, you could do worse than a WR corps of Nelson, Colston, Jackson, Brown. I would say Eli is underrated but he went for $24. If he can get some production from RB/TE which is 1/3 of his roster he should be a playoff team, but that's a big if.
Best Value - Probably Eli Manning. It makes me dirty to say it but he's going to get involved in a lot of shootouts, clearly has the title of most clutch QB right now, was #6 in QB scoring last year and went for less than half of Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Stafford.
Worst Value - I would say Mendenhall I guess. Mike did a good job of picking guys to value, even if MoJo is a big question mark, $39 is safer than the $49 he spent on Chris Johnson in a similar situation last year. Mendenhall for $12 just seems like a waste despite the reports today he looks "great".
7. Blood Sweat and Beers - Perennial contender throws down an interesting draft. I'm pretty sure I mocked his draft last year for being underwhelming and he certainly outperformed me. This year he went big or he's going home. 4 players commanded $143: Brees, White, Jackson and Peterson. It doesn't seem like he really overpaid for any one of them, but outside of White I think they carry a lot of questions for that much money. First, no one has any idea what effect Sean Payton has had on Drew Brees career and what Joe Vitt and NFLCOACHB will do for him this year. The Saints have had player defections and suspensions across the board and didn't really seem to replenish. I think you'd much rather have Brady for 6 dollars less. Fred Jackson has hit that magical age of 31 and it's time the Bills found out what they have in Spiller. I don't think it's much, but Spiller is going to need to dig into Jackson's time to keep Jackson fresh for 16 games. I dont see Jackson going higher than 950/6 this year and for $26 that sucks. Peterson is a different story. Is he a freak? Can he really come back from super shredded knees that fast and be that effective. I just don't see it. I dont see how Peterson isn't sparingly used for several weeks to start the season given the low expectations of the team and the competence of Gerhart. Without those two guys this team relies on Beanie Wells. Yikes. I love the Miles Austin for $10 and Mike Williams for $2 but I think Rene has the same problem as Rob. Slow start, bad finish.
Best Value - Miles Austin. Hamstring problems or not, $10 is cheap for that known ceiling.
Worst Value - Adrian Peterson. We just don't know when he will play and how good he will look when he does and how long he can last. He's just coming back way too soon from that injury and for $27 it seems like a total waste.
8. Mr. Carlson's Class - Stars and Scrubs. A sort of annual tradition for Chris. He wants a high ranked player at RB and WR, and newly of last year at QB. He tried this and semi-failed this year. It's hard to call a Tom Brady led team a failure, but I am just not a fan of this year's Class. $38 for Graham is ridiculous. In fact, I'm going to go on an aside here. I listened to a couple of Matthew Berry podcasts, and read a lot of the pick TE at #11-14 crap. That stuff holds water better in a snake draft where you can sneak in someone like Torrey Smith and Stevie Johnson in the mid rounds. But in an auction where the market shifts at the drop of a hat (DeMarco Murray $42) you price yourself out of a lot of talent when you don't expect it. Also spending $51 on the Kansas City running game isn't bad in itself, but when you have to use two roster spots to score it for an indeterminate amount of weeks it is bad. Stealing from Simmons, this team just simply doesn't pass the smell test for me.
Best Value: Looking back on this it will probably be Ronnie Hillman for a buck. But right now it's hard to say. In fact, I'll got out on a limb here. Im writing down the 'other' Steve Smith. I pegged him for a sleeper and a target until I ended up with other players below my market value for them. I think for $2 he has a good WR3 with top 24 potential. It's not a breakout value but $2 for top 24 production is awesome value.
Worst Value - Graham for reasons stated above. Why not Hernandez and Lloyd for the same price? Especially when you obviously favor NE's passing game by drafting Brady. And this isn't a far fetched hypothetical, I think most mocks would give you Lloyd and Hernandez for around $38. Graham priced this team out of other talent later in the raft and I just dont think Graham makes up for it. That's not to say he's not good, just not worth $38.
9. Call Me Brady? - I'm sorry Rob, I tried. I tried really hard to find a way to like this team and give it a thumbs up for the playoffs. But I think you go 0 for 4 this year. I do think you got Julio Jones at a value compared to the collective boner the fantasy community has had for him this offseason. I've seen him go near $40 in drafts. Welker seems like a good value at $25 too. But then you get a little fishy with your money spending $67 on Wallace, Lynch and Rivers. Wallace and Lynch are assured slow starts and Rivers continues to look like shit with down velocity. It seems like before these players will right the ship you could be 1-3 or 0-4 and possibly out of it. What compounds the problem is there is nothing behind it between Gore, Boldin, Stewart, Best, and Blount. That may be the worst starting RB2 and bench in the league.
Best Value - Welker. For sure he should have gone in the $30s with other marquee receivers. Who cares how many targets Brady has, Welker will get his. It seems to be a lesson we re-learn every year. Nice job getting him for $25.
Worst Value - Marshawn Lynch. It's not like you spent a lot on him, but wasting $27 is still wasting $27. He's already battling back spasms which caused him to mysterious miss a start unannounced last year. Also call me a non-believer, but I'm not buying into last year for him. He cashed in with $18 mil guaranteed this offseason and he hasn't had the best track record for on field and off field work performance. I'm betting he's content with his $18 mil.
10. I Got Gronkchitis!!! - This year's scaredy cat. He just
couldn't pull the trigger on more bids than I can count. He bought his first
player at #17 and his second 40(!) picks later at #57. He is the classic case
of being too patient. The fact that he will start every week some combination
of Michael Crabtree, Willis McGahee, Jared Cook, Ahmad Bradshaw, or Darren
Sproles every week gives him a really low floor. That WR corps is especially
thin and there is a serious threat to every running back's value on his
roster but Steven Jackson. It's just hard to like this team for any more than
90 pts a week, which is too low to sustain a playoff record.
Best Value: I guess Stevie Johnson. He seems to be a
guaranteed 1000 and 7, about what AJ Green did last year. $15 bucks is fairly
cheap for that.
Worst Value: Willis McGahee. Lets throw in Sproles there
too. $41 dollars spent on those two. Would he trade McGahee, Sproles and $2 for
Darren McFadden? Yep. How about McGahee, Sproles and getting $1 back for Chris
Johnson. You betcha. McGahee, Sproles and splurging and extra $9 dollars for
Arian Foster instead of spending $15 dollars on Randle, Vereen, and Pead? You
get this picture. $41 dollars for those two players is too much and he was put
in that position by failing to pull the trigger earlier.
11. Sandusky's TEs - The other Rene went super big early and
I think got too aggressive with DeMarco Murray. There is no questioning the
value of Ray Rice and Megatron. Those guys are as much of favorites to be the
best at their positions as anyone. Matt Ryan for $26 feels about right with the
talk of the new air it out offense in Atlanta and Eli Manning's price, whom I
think is Ryan's comp. But then it fell apart at Murray and went to hell after
that. DeMarco flashed RB1 talent for the few weeks he was healthy and I always
liked him in college. I also like that it seems he has no competition as Felix
Jones looks even worse than last year *cough* who drafted that guy last year? *cough*.
What I don't like is an O-line in progress and a known history of being unlucky
with injuries. When you drop half your budget on 2 players you either need to
be very sure when you drop the rest on 1 more or you need to spread it out. I
don't like the decision and I think it doomed the rest of this draft. Lucky for
us we probably wont see Rice and Megatron in the fantasy playoffs.
Best Value - Matt Ryan. I like him alot, but I promised not
to get into a bidding war over him that would kill my budget. I think he is the
same value as Manning, half the price of the elites but well more than half the value.
Worst Value - DeMarco Murray. Horrible, horrible pick at $43.
12. SUHkkake Ejections - This is certainly the most
bizarrely constructed team with an obvious strategy in mind: trade one or two of
the seven running backs for WRs. The problem is outside the top two running
backs the other ones he drafted have such little value. If you trade one of the
top two you can only hope for a wash, or that you were spared an injury, since
he did target the two high upside cant stay healthy backs in the draft. I mean
this team as constructed sucks. Compounded by the fact Mathews, one of 3
quality players on the team, likely isnt useful for 3-4 weeks. No way this team
makes the playoffs without changes.
Best Value - Despite what I said earlier, Mathews at $33 is
not bad value. If this was on a more balanced team it would be phenomenal, but
$33 for an unquestioned 3 down back with talent is cheap.
Worst Value - The other 5 running backs taken after Mathews.
They combined for $41 which could have been used to supplement that pathetic WR
corps. A close second is spending another $11 on two other quarterbacks not
named Stafford when you spent $51 already on Stafford. I wish I could throw
around 25% of my budget and be confident about my team too.
Whether you love it or hate it, I know you enjoyed it. As always what does anyone really know when it comes to fantasy, but I think these are the best educated guesses out there. Good luck this season, maybe I'll buy a shot for everyone with my winnings for allowing me to construct a juggernaut.
All but three of GL's roster positions produced double-digit fantasy points. WOW. In fact, three --THREE!-- position players actually produced 20+ points (M. Ryan, Ca. Johnson, R. Rice). What stood out to me the most, however, was the impact that Gregorovich Little's D/ST, the Arizona Cardinals, had on this match-up. Arizona put THE HURT on Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, scoring 24 fantasy points for GL, while holding Rappin Forte's QB to a pedestrian 7.48, his lowest point total of the season.
