So I have decided to do these rankings every two weeks. There is simply too much variation week to week, and to be frank I'm going to write the same amount of stuff every two weeks that I would have every week, so it saves me half the time. So each edition will have a theme, with me discussing some interesting trends I've noticed over the last two (or more) weeks. This edition, as suggested, focuses on the league's gunslingers.
1. I think we can all agree now that last seasons passing records need to come with asterisks. The lockout clearly helped offenses, most likely by stunting defenses and their ability to game plan for the emerging passing attacks around the league. Good offenses will always beat good defenses in the NFL. The offensive players know where they are going, the defense can only react. This is why hurry up offenses can be so effective. Despite the fact that both units are gassing, defensive players require more focus in order to be able to read and react. With no off season workouts and training camps used as off season workouts just to get the defensive players into shape defenses were behind the eight ball all season long.
2. Fast forward to this year, with all the defensive focus on stopping the pass game, and a full season of OTAs, mini camps, and training camps and defenses are better equipped to handle the pass we are now seeing the following:
Only 1 QB on pace for 40 touchdowns thus far and it's a guy who just won't get there (Fitzpatrick) Last year 3 finished over that mark with another at 39.
8 QBs on pace for 24 or more interceptions, where only 4 finished that high last year.
Most concerning for fantasy owners that invested big here is that the defenses seem more focused on the elite QBs creating greater parity at the position making huge investments here less valuable. In terms of total points, QB # 4 (Eli Manning) through QB#10 are separated by only 2.5 pts a game. #1 through 3 includes RGIII, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan, and only one QB who commanded $40+. The others? Look at this list
Cam Newton #12
Aaron Rodgers #15
Tom Brady #17
Matthew Stafford #25
Theoretically, after two weeks (which is a small sample size), only Cam Newton has been starter worthy in this league and thats been debatable. Sure you could also say things like well Rodgers has face two games against tough defenses in San Francisco and Chicago. Well Rodgers' worst game was 25+ points and he averaged something like 36 ppg against the Bears last year. Thats why you spend 63 dollars. If you aren't getting that value it hurts and it stands to reason that with the exception of Stafford's owner Newton, Rodgers, and Brady are owned by team with a combined 1-5 record with the one team with a win sporting the lowest point total in the league.
Sure things may change in 2 weeks but as of right now, teams who didn't go crazy at QB (Matt Ryan $26, Tony Romo $14, Philip Rivers $16, Michael Vick $18) Are certainly looking better in the standings than those who went big at QB.
On to the rankings! A few guidelines for those of you who haven't seen them before, these are past partly on past results and partly on future expectations, and a lot on slow to resolve biases against certain players as Rob is about to find out.
1. Raider Nation (Previous: 1)
Not much to say here, this team has done exactly what I projected. Matt Forte and Jeremy Maclin being injured certainly hurts but it doesn't sound too bad for Forte and I doubt Maclin misses much more than a week if any time and this team is deep enough to survive a week or two without them. Roll on Raider Nation.
2. My Vick in a Box (Previous: 2)
I waffled on this team. I had them anywhere from 2-4 and settled on 2 despite the number 3 team taking home the win. As noted above Rodgers has struggled and Jennings has already missed time. It's a small margin for error when you spend so much on two players, but Arian Foster has certainly paid dividends thus far and Rodgers on tap doesn't look bad. His O-line maybe, but I think most of us agree we can't push the panic button on him at all. A couple of easier matchups on the horizon so we might see this team at 2-2 next time around and looking just fine. I think this is still one of the more dangerous teams going forward and this rankings shows it.
3. Choppa (Previous: 4)
I'm not sure what I think about this team. He put up a good fight against in week 1 and beat #2 in week 2. Obviously his team is good I just worry a little bit about that WR corps and Trent Richardson may be a hot and cold RB going forward with the limited offensive production at the QB position and you just dont see a whole lot of mega game production on this team. It is solid in several spots and my loss is his gain with Hernandez going down for a month+. After this week he will have played #2 and #4 on this list. Road gets easier and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hanging around this spot for awhile.
4. GentlemanJakeLocker (Previous: 3)
Horrible week 1 countered by a solid week 2 in which i got no production from a hurt Hernandez. Also 21 yards rushing in 2 games for CJ? Uggggghhh. I'm not spending $39 on any running backs again. Last year it was Mendenhall for $39 and this year it was CJ. I guess it's not too bad, I was targeting Run DMC in the same spot and he hasn't worked out much better. Tennessee and CJ will figure it out and it starts this week against a crappy Lions defense. But this team is solid all around and shows what it can do when it can get normal QB production. Hernandez is a loss but nothing my stable of WRs can't overcome. The next couple of weeks don't look super difficult in terms of actual player matchups so I'm expecting a 3-1 or 2-2 record coming into the next rankings.
5. Star of David Akers (Previous: 5)
By all rights I should probably dump these next two teams for the two behind them, but they both are 1-1 and I like the upgrade Slavin made in that trade and there is still a lot of other talent on the roster, but with this one caveat. I'd rather have CJ than Fitz right now. As long as Kolb holds the reins on that Cardinal offense Fitz' upside is super limited. This is well documented now over the last season and 2 games. Skelton is Fitz' friend, Kolb and his deer in the headlights look just can't get him the ball. After that first awful pick against NE, Kolb was shifted into super dink n' dunk mode killing Fitz' value. Light a candle and say a prayer Whisenhunt puts Skelton back in there when healthy. Guess Slavin will put my words in play this week as he takes on one of those two teams that easily could be in this spot. Prove me right!
6. Deep Pockets (Previous: 6)
This is the specific example of why I didn't want to do these rankings every week. Lowest point total last week to highest point total this week. I think he's somewhere in the middle and hence I'll keep him at 6th. I said it at the beginning of the year and I still think it's true, Eli Manning was one of the best buys of the draft. That defense is terrible and Manning will be winging it around the field. It helps to have arguably the best WR duo (White and Jones may have something to say about that) in the league. Tougher matchups coming these next two weeks, let's see if he can hold onto the top 6 spot.
7. Call Me Brady? (Previous: 9)
Ok first, I am still one of the non-believers in Gore and Lynch. More so Gore than Lynch. I would've thought the inability to throw coupled with back spasms coupled with two good defenses would stymie Lynch. Nope. I still think he's not as good as shown. Gore has benefited from two defenses that suck. Sure Green Bay looked great against the Bears, but it's still not a good defense and the Lions have to be a bottom 5 defense at this point. Maybe I'm wrong, but whatever, I'm sure these two guys are not as good as their point totals the first two weeks. They have been big reasons why this team is 2-0. The reason I moved them up? Well they are 2-0 and don't have a tough next two game slate and Welker, looking like a total bust may have found new life for a while with this Hernandez injury. I'm still not a believer but I'm willing to change next time around.
8. Gregorovich Little (Previous: 11)
This is based solely on the fact that Matt Ryan is a top 5 QB this year for sure. I've watched him a ton and continue to regret not ponying up the near 30 for him. He is poised, he hasn't made one bad throw yet, and the no-huddle offense is for real. I can't move him higher because I still think the starter depth sucks, but he could be dangerous with that Rice, Megatron, Ryan, and to a lesser extent Murray combo. Gonna have to show me more before I believe in this team.
9. SUHkkake Ejections (Previous: 12)
This might be unfair, but this is certainly the weakest 2-0 team in the league. I will give this team credit as it has been doing this without Mathews, but unlike Rodgers, I think we can start to push the panic button a little on Stafford. I think he relies too much on Megatron and if teams "take him away" (since even though the 49ers took him away he still nearly recorded 100 yards) he seems completely lost. It also doesn't help the rest of the offense is underwhelming. Also I don't believe in Reggie Bush as a top 15 back and that WR corps makes me want to scratch my eyes out. Also has a chance to prove me wrong over the next two weeks, but I want to see more.
10. I GOT GRONKCHITIS!!! (Previous: 10)
Hmmm. It's happening again for this team. Clearly has faced the "toughest schedule" in terms of Points Against. I'm not sure how much this team upgraded by making that trade. For Slavin he couldn't start Steve Smith, and with the exception of Fitz, who you just can't bench, Smith may have ranked #5 on that team. For this team Sproles was definitely a starter and probably has the same ceiling as Smith. Just didn't seem to help this team much. With Bradshaw going down and Jackson tweaking a groin, and Fred Jackson already back on the rehab train, Sproles may be more useful than Smith at this point. Cam Newton will not approach his value last year. It's kind of do or die for this team as he faces #7 and #8 in these rankings, which are possible movers. Take them down and this team becomes a mover. Sorry but I'm not confident.
11. Blood Sweat and Beers (Previous: 7)
This team is alright, I guess, it just doesn't off the page. I picked it to be a non-playoff team, and so I dropped them further with 0-2 start. Another make or break 2 weeks stretch against #9 (very winnable) and #2 (very tough). I'm kind of disappointed with Peterson's performance in Indy. I did not think Indy was very good against the run and Peterson just didn't flash the same skills we've come to love to watch. He certainly has more work to do to round into form and just may never be the same. On the plus side Miles Austin has been bringing it for that cheap $10 investment and crowning of Julio Jones over Roddy White in Atlanta may have been premature too.
12. Mr. Carlson's Class (Previous: 8)
Those lucky charms Carlson has been holding onto over the past few years seem to be losing their charm. This team is ugly right now and doesn't look like it will find a way out. No WR talent outside Thomas and having to use both starting running back spots on KC running backs because there are no better options have stunted this team bad. Brady will have better games but even with 10 more points it would have still been the worst team last week. I can see this team easily at 1-3 when these rankings come back around.
Hope you enjoyed it and good luck to those trying to make moves to get out of the holes. You can't start worrying until you get to 6 losses and right now it's way too early to worry, unless you start both KC running backs as RB1 and RB2 on your team. For the other 11 teams, there is plenty for eason for optimism.
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