Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Historical Power Rankings

Congratulations to Deep Pockets (Mike) for winning the league last year following his arguably unfair elimination from the playoffs in the last week of the season in 2012. If there was ever evidence that fantasy gods and fantasy karma exists, it was last year. I mean, since when does DeMarco Murray stay healthy all year to be the 7th highest scoring RB, outscoring other high priced backs like Adrian Peterson. Target's on your back now...

For those unfamiliar or don't remember how this works each person is ranked according to my infallible evaluation. Each person is represented in order by their 1) Average final standings after the playoffs, 2) Regular season record and winning percentage, 3) Championship and Consolation playoff records, 4) Years active in the league, 5) Number of titles, and 6) Ranking from the previous year's version. Sometimes these rankings set themselves, other times I make judgment calls based on these stats, but no matter the situation I am always right. 

1. Chris (Mr. Carlson's Class): 2.20, 45-20, .692 (10-4, 0-0) (5 years) (2 TITLES) (Previous: 1)

Chris has held this spot forever and will probably continue to hold this spot for a long time. He actually managed to lower his average final standing from 2.25 to 2.20 with a second place finish last year. Pretty incredible. His once lofty .700+ winning percentage finally regressed a little with an 8-5 finish last year. Riding the Chip Kelly offense train, as well as Matt Forte and Josh Gordon, Chris blasted his way to the finals falling .18 points short of a 3rd title, but earning the $50 consolation prize for the bad beat award. Could probably go 0-13 and still be here at the top at the end of this year. 

2. Mike (Deep Pockets): 5.0, 34-18, .653 (3-3, 0-2) (4 years) (1 TITLE(Previous: 5)
Definitely my biggest swing and a miss on my preseason expectations last year (ranked 9th) Mike won the regular season title in dominating fashion with a 10-3 and finished the season on a 7 game winning streak, including the playoffs. DeMarco Murray has already been mentioned, but this was overall probably the deepest team with Vernon Davis, om Brady, Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, and Pierre Garcon to pair with the #4 defense and #5 kicker. Definitely deserving of this bridesmaid spot below Chris.

3. Lee (Choppa): 6.4, 35-30, .538 (3-3 1-1) (5 years) (1 TITLE) (Previous: 4)


Third straight year in the playoffs for Lee, who now has to be considered among our strongest members.  Continually riding his rookies and second year players (as well as Drew Brees) Lee put up another winning record. Alshon Jeffery, Zac Stacy, and Jordan Cameron highlighted the list of youngsters who helped propel Lee to the playoffs yet again, to the surprise of very few.

4. Rene J. (Blood, Sweat & Beers): 6.4, 39-26, .600 (4-3, 2-2) (5 years) (Previous: 2)

A second straight 11th place finish, plus a now average finishing position right at the playoff cutoff line, forces me to move him out of the Number 2 spot he has held for some time. This fall from grace last season was less of a surprise than 2012 as I rated this team 8th following the draft. The Kaepernick/Wilson $45 investment never yielded the results hoped, nor the trade bounty probably expected at the time of the draft. Amendola for $23 never panned out and the other $74 spent on Dez and Reggie Bush didn't produce the firepower needed as neither crossed 200 pts. Looking for a rebound from what used to be one of our stronger members. 

5. Roberts (IbelievethatIwillwin): 6.0, 35-30, .538 (3-4, 1-3) (5 years) (Previous: 3)



Certainly not my best performance falling short of the last playoff spot by 11 total points. Definitely would've been different if I had just pulled the trigger on Peyton like I planned for the extra few bucks and not ended up with Cam Newton after an ill advised $25 price enforcement bid. Turns out Cam was one of my best picks finishing 5th among QBs. My irrational love affair with CJ0k and Ridley's motherfucking fumble fingers put me behind the 8 ball after spending $85 combined on those two. Gotta bounce back just like Rene. 

You know what? I'm not done ranting about Ridley. He has like 8 carries for 45 yards in the first 18 minutes of the game Week 1 against the Bills, then fumbles the ball which was returned for a TD. Then sees the 40% split of a carry time share for the next 3 weeks because of that one fumble. Vereen gets hurt too and then freaking LeGarrette 900 pounds of suck Blount starts getting all the good carries. Then for WHATEVER reason Belichick gives Ridley the ball 20 times against the Saints. Goes off for 96 and 2 TDs and then scores a TD every game thereafter, for 5 straight weeks helping bring me back. Then as I'm building hope, in the middle of the season he loses a fumble in week 8, week 9, and finally week 10 and he's done, thus partially sinking my team. Hold on to the FOOTBALL!! Sigh.  

6. Marc (Keep Sending Them Chx): 7, 34-31, .523 (2-4, 2-3) (5 years) (Previous: 9)


A very strong rebound year to finish 3rd after back to back disappointing years. Improved the average standings and got back to a winning record after a 9-4 season. I whiffed on this team too in my preseason rankings (#10) feeling that he overspent on Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Demaryius Thomas and Frank Gore. Only partially correct in that regard but his strength was post draft transactions - A controversial trade with a team that had been inactive most of the year sent him LeVeon Bell to cover for the loss of Martin and the poor performance of Spiller and a beautiful move to get Julius Thomas 3 days before opening day. Certainly enough to move him back up the charts. 
7. Rob (Call Me Brady?), 8.8, 28-37, .431 (2-0, 1-5) (5 years) (1 TITLE(Previous: 6)


A year after winning the title, Rob went largely inactive, including as an autodrafter. Not much to say other than he finished with an expected last place finish after several weeks of failing to field a complete team. Somehow still won 4 games, including twice against me, when he was inactive during one of the weeks. Thanks, Stevan Ridley. After 5 years it seems Rob has at least semi-retired. He does leave with a precious championship belt in hand, 1 of only 4 people to have one, but it appears more and more like a blind hit on a dart board than anything else. He will suffer only a one place drop due to his title, but surely is on the bubble for more.  


8. Jose (Candlestickit2U): 4.0, 8-5 .615 (1-2, 0-0) (1 year) (previous: NR)

A decent rookie debut for Jose as he dispatched the reigning champs in the playoffs before getting run out by the eventual champion. Some nice surprises in the mix (Ryan Mathews, Riley Cooper) with trusty veterans (AJ Green, Marshawn Lynch) helped this team coast to the playoffs, aided by the leagues easiest schedule as determined by average points against. Fell short likely because of a lack of a true killer QB as Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer both underwhelmed last year as each fell out of the top 12 among QBs last year. Looking forward to another step forward for one of leagues newest members. 

9. Rene B. (Ligaments): 5.5, 11-15, .423 (1-1, 2-1) (2 years) (Previous: 7)


Wasn't present for the draft, but had a substitute and ended up with Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, and Steven Jackson and very little else, as well as $18 dollars left over in the draft. Pretty hard to rebound from that as he finished with the same record as our inactive at 4-9. Also semi-retired, a promising start that saw him 1 Tom Brady passing yard away from a title in 2012 ends with a thud following last season. 


10. Drew (Drew's Boys in Blue): 6, 20-19, .513 (1-4, 1-1) (3 years) (Previous: 10)

Inactive last season. 

11. Adam (Lamborghini Percy): 5, 7-6, .538 (1-1, 0-0) (1 year) (Previous: 8)

Inactive last season. 

12. Cirimele (SUHkkake Ejections): 7.5, 23-29, .442 (3-3, 0-2) (4 years) (Previous: 11)

Inactive last season.
13. Landers (Cranders): 7.66, 15-24, .384 (1-1, 3-0) (3 years) (Previous: 12)

Inactive last season. 
14. Rick (Kaep'n Crunch): 8.2, 18-34 .346 (0-2, 5-2) (5 years) (Previous: 13)

The bell rang long and loud through the country. Rick made the playoffs (by the skin of his teeth)! Of course, it shouldn't have been that close when he had Peyton Manning in a record setting year, but Rick manages to find ways to make things difficult while holding top fantasy players. His overall stats didn't improve much as he went 6-7 and ultimately finished 6th. Has some work to do to prove this wasn't a fluke, as much of the rest of his team last year was uninspiring as he stuck it out with nearly his entire starting roster intact from the draft: Montee Ball, MoJo, Andre Johnson, Colston, Decker, Antonio Gates, etc...Because of the long history of futility and minimal success enjoyed last season I still can't move him above several teams that were inactive last year. 
15. Brian (Raider Nation) 7, 10-16, .384 (0-0, 6-0) (2 years) (Previous: 14)

Incredible. I had to double check to make sure I didn't already enter Brian's information in as he produced identical 7th place finishes with 5-8 records in both 2012 and 2013. Model of consistency and super champion of the consolation playoffs. I like that. Rodgers injury may have hurt a little, but Luck as a backup spared much heartbreak there. Jamaal Charles was a beast, but after that much of the erst of the team left something to be desired. Really wanted to move him up the list over Rick, but until Brian makes the real playoffs he'll have to stay here. 

16. John (Hurricane Ditka): 9.0, 6-7 .462 (0-0, 1-1) (1 year) (previous: NR)

Also a decent showing by our other rookie from last year as he finished only 20 points out of a playoff spot. Definitely was hurt by a subpar year from Adrian Peterson (by his standards and his price tag) as well as Ray Rice falling off the cliff (called it!) producing RB3 numbers for 25% of John's budget. But some nice surprise contributions helped keep this team in it including investments in Joique Bell, Julian Edelman, and Marvin Jones' amazing 10 TDs. Looking forward to this team's sophomore effort. 

17. Fregosi (Balllldddiiiinnnggg): 9.5, 11-15 .423 (0-0, 0-2) (2 years) (Previous: 15)

Inactive last season. 
18. Nam (TBA): 9, 9-17 .346 (0-0, 3-3) (2 years) (Previous: 16)

Inactive last season. 

19. McWhorter (Mr. Steve Bremevich): 10.5, 9-17 .346 (0-0, 0-0) (2 years) (Previous: 17)

Inactive last season. 






Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Final Power Rankings: It's Reckoning Time!

So I feel like I kind of let this space down this year. Three things really made it difficult to get these things out in a timely fashion every two weeks: 1) My primary blog: ifithasballs.blogspot.com 2) The birth of my first child 3) Those insipid Thursday night games that were terrible from a fantasy lineup perspective (and are causing a problem for me this week), a gambling perspective, and an actual performance perspective. I only had about 70 hours from the finish of MNF to the start of TNF to get these in and I basically struggled to find the time. I promise I'll do better next year.

That being said, I'm never ashamed to go into the past and tout my successes and lament my failures in public. So let's see how my preseason rankings and especially what may be some comical inaccuracies in my best/worst buys segment stacked up to reality:

1. Call Me Brady? (Preseason Rank: 9)

Officially (8-5) or unofficially (9-4) finished with the worst record for a league champ in the 4 year history of this league. Which is a pretty interesting historical note.  Also, we get to make fun of one of my predictions right off the bat. I was unnecessarily harsh on Frank Gore (even though it was a common belief he wouldnt be that good this year) and just flat out wrong on Marshawn Lynch. Combined with RG3 (who was a savvy pick and one I meant to make but got distracted by Teach asking me which QB I was going to eventually take) those three relative bargains really made this team strong week in and week out and certainly a preseason rank of 9 was a swing and a miss. I guess it was just hard for me to give this owner the benefit of the doubt based on the past. Solid season notwithstanding the turmoil of the past week.

Best buy: Welker ($25). 13th best receiver for 25 dollars seems actually about right. So obviously not the best buy, but I was right to think this was a good pick.

Worst buy: Lynch ($27). Yeah let's just move on. Nice pick up.

2. Matty rIce (Preseason Rank: 11)

Probably even worse, although if I had won this week he would have been 8th instead of 2nd, but he did finish with the highest points. Every year you find a team that overcomes its crappy draft with solid free agent pickups or get lucky with $1 lottery ticket specials. This was that team. Despite spending $43 bucks on an obviously fragile DeMarco Murray this team found itself two top 10 running backs with Rice and Morris. Despite spending all that money on Ryan, Megatron, Rice, and Murray, this team also found itself a second WR1 with Randall Cobb. Those things make a big difference and did here. I don't think I was too harsh on my ranking in the preseason but this manager struck gold more than once in the bargain bin.

Best buy: Matt Ryan ($26). Good call here again. He was a top 7 QB yielding the same value as $40 Cam Newton and more value than $50 Stafford and a measly 3 pts/game less than the turly expensive Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. While Cobb at $1 was obviously the best buy on this team, Ryan wasn't bad. But this wasn't as much of a steal as I thought heading in.  

Worst Buy: DeMarco Murray ($43). Yes you hear you can't take injury into consideration when drafting but in some cases you really can. This was way too high for a running back that hadn't been healthy in a few years through college and was playing behind that below average O-line with a coach that likes to throw it. Even in the games he played fully he was hit or miss. Just too much money here.

3. The Big Gostkowski (Preseason Rank: 3)

Hey I got one! I find it fascinating I now only start 3 guys I drafted. I usually pride myself on making few moves and drafting well but a few things happened early. Hakeem Nicks (see: DeMarco Murray warning, should have heeded my own advice) and Aaron Hernandez both went down killing 20% of my drafted team value and Chris Johnson was looking to kill another 20% with his horrid start. So I did something I don't do often: traded early. It worked out mutually for Chris and I and was pretty lopsided for Lee and I but those savvy moves shored up a team that was then buoyed by two savvy special teams drafts (Gostkowski and Seattle) and the most active I have ever been I think on the wire: 33 total moves in 13 weeks. I'm pretty happy with the results.

Best buy: Dez Bryant ($14). I didn't like this pick and with Nicks and Lloyd (a HORRIBLE pick) in tow I felt someone might be in the market for Bryant's ceiling but at $14 its a minimal risk. Little did I know he would crush the second half and finally scratch that ceiling. Good call, bad read on the trade by me. 6th best WR in the fantasy regular season.

Worst buy: BenJarvus Green-Ellis ($19). The reason this was a bad buy was that I could have spread that money around for better talent elsewhere. Well up until a few weeks ago this was dead on, now he's the 15th best RB and I think most would pay $19 for that. Nicks or Lloyd really should be here.

4. Mr. Carlson's Class (Preseason Rank: 8)

Wasn't as down on this team in the preseason as others were but I sure bailed quick with that slow start. He took a chance trading a sure fire player in Brady for three could-bes and all three have hit in their own way. Without that trade I think Mr. Carlson's Class might be on the sidelines this postseason. But the luckiest man in fantasy football found his way back and actually is probably the hottest team in the playoffs.

Best buy: Steve Smith ($3) Pffft. What a dumb call. Is he even still in the league or did he get cut halfway through? I have no idea, but when you cant crack the WR straved Rams lineup you're done.

Worst buy: Jimmy Graham ($38). I'm sticking by this. That is entirely too much to spend there and would have been reason number 1 this team failed to produce an all-around competitive lineup. I think it would have been the same without the injury. You can't spend $38 for 5 double digit weeks out of 13.

5. Lamborghini Percy (Preseason Rank: 5)

I had to withstand the urge to put an asterisk by this, but as has been discussed ad nauseum this wasn't like someone cheated so I'll take credit for nailing another pick on the head. I loved that receiving corps and if this team had any kind of competent QB play at all this year it probably would have won the league. Made some curious trades near the end but both seem to have worked out in this team's favor. Harvin hasn't been back since he was traded and Fitz might as well not be on the field. It hasn't exactly helped this team either as it has limped into the playoffs losing 4 of its last 6 (5 of 6?) while scoring 100+ points only once in that stretch.

Best buy:  Michael Turner ($22). Man he's looked terrible but finds a way to score most weeks. Hes also the 14th best RB and just like The Law Firm youll pay about 20 for a top 15 back every time.

Worst buy: Harvin ($24) Only because it was the 5th receiver he drafted, not because Harvin is bad, I actually like Harvin a bit. Turns out he got his trade: Steve Smith for Sproles. I think then this was a good buy, so I'll take a strike on this one.

6. Choppa (Preseason Rank: 4)

And with that I predicted half the playoff teams. Not great. For a team that loves his young guns I find it interesting he has ridden Peyton Manning to this point, but wow Peyton is a machine again. I thought that Doug Martin trade may have sunk him since he got almost nothing of value in the end, but holding onto Richardson and making a nice late season deal parting with AJ Green for Torrey Smith and CJ Spiller has really helped plug that hole. Pretty nice season for the defending champ.

Best buy: Trent Richardson ($26). Pretty good call there, Trent is the 5th highest RB currently.

Worst buy: Rob Gronkowski ($37). He actually was heating up before his broken arm and still sits first despite his injury. I still don't like it, but it's not a great worst buy call.

7. Deep Pockets (Preseason Rank: 6)

Couldn't make up my mind on this team preseason and it looks like I overestimated it a bit and I aonly diagnosed part of the problem. The RBs really sunk this team, even when MoJo was in, but beyond that the QB play was terrible. Eli really no showed this year, and actually with passing numbers way down this year from last year it's no surprise the more mediocre QBs couldn't sustain their success last year. While this team was at the brunt of controversy at the end, I think most would agree it was a long shot to sustain any kind of success in the playoffs.

Best buy: Eli Manning ($24). Hahahaha, whoops. For a guy that didn't miss a game being the 18th overal QB is really bad. Bad call and really Deep Pockets ought to make sure Eli gets the memo on how much he hurt his team.

Worst buy: Rashard Mendenhall ($12). This was a cop-out pick. I was right but I think youd be right 100 times out of 100 if you make a pick like this. Not going to tout this "success:"

8. PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS? (Preseason Rank: 2)

I actually still can not figure out how this team missed the playoffs. Rodgers was excellent and Foster was even more excellent. I guess the WR corps wasn't as good as I thought and Bowe was a disaster, but it was still supplemented with James Jones' great season in replacement of Jennings. I just can't figure it out, I guess maybe he just sat on a few players too long like Bowe and Finley. It's not even like he had a bunch of bad losses, he only lost 1 game he scored over 100, which is like most teams and finished with 9th most points. Another disappointing year for the last playoff virgin in this league.

Best buy: Desean Jackson ($4) I still think it was. That's comically low, even for a WR3/Flex, but definitely a disappointing year for Jackson.

Worst buy: Aaron Rodgers ($63). On some level I was right. The most expensive player by $5 over the 2nd most expensive and by at least $10 more than anyone else just didn't yield that same value. Tom Brady at $52 yields the same value, even in preseason thinking. Still, its hard to complain about going out to get the NFL MVP in the middle of his prime.

9. Blood, Sweat, and Beer (Preseason Rank: 7)

Ah this time being down on this team was correct, although he sure made it interesting towards the end. I thought we could eulogize this team at Week 8 and then they went on a tear only to fall just short. Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson (holy shit what a season) just couldn't do it, much the same way Rodgers and Foster couldn't do it for Rick. Might be a lesson in there. After those two guys there isn't a lot in the way of successes, Roddy White was fine, and so was Miles Austin, but there just weren't enough explosive performances on this team. Starting both Witten and Vernon Davis several weeks probably gives you all you need to know about the depth here. Hopefully we'll see this team back, after all he was #2 on the historical rankings chart coming into this year and puts up some good competition.

Best buy: Miles Austin ($10). Yup I think so, every one will pay $10 for a bonafide WR2 in this league.

Worst Buy: Adrian Peterson ($27). Worst than the Lynch call. He's superhuman. Who comes back from a late season three knee ligament tear to lead the NFL in rushing the next season. Unbelievable. He and Megatron are simply otherworldly in terms of their athleticism.

10. SUHkkake Ejections (Preseason Rank: 12)

I think this was a good call. This team was less than 1 full point away in two games from being 4-9 and actually in last place. Spent a ton of money on running backs that all were busts. In fact this is a pretty good all-bust lineup on its own. I am really disappointed in McFadden though. What an awful season for the several weeks he was healthy. Probably took too long to turn one of those 3 backs into something more valuable. Also probably shouldn't draft so many running backs.

Best buy: Ryan Mathews ($33). God he's terrible. Maybe it's the O-line, maybe it's him. All I know is that $33 didn't yield much.

Worst buy: All other running backs not named Mathews and McFadden. ($41 combined). This included Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Roy Helu, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones. Looks like I was right on here.

11. I've Got Gronkchitis!!! (Preseason Rank: 10)

Made some moves early, but Cam Newton and Steve Smith combined were so bad it put this team in a big hole recordwise it just couldn't get out of. Actually, heading into Week 12, this team hadn't score that many points, so the unlucky card wasn't playable. Then he puts up 150+ back to back weeks and now has the 3rd most points. Still, this wasn't a playoff team and that was apparent from the start. Too many spare parts and not enough elite talent.

Best buy: Stevie Johnson ($15). He actually could fulfill that 1000 and 7 I said earlier, he's at 700 and 5 with 4 games to go so I guess he was useful. He just kinda qualifies as a spare part like so many others on this team.

Worst buy: McGahee and Sproles ($41). I still think he could've done better with this money, but it wasn't as bad as I felt at the time. Cam for $40 was also looking terrible but somehow hes now the 6th ranked QB.

12. Raider Nation (Preseason Rank: 1)

Geez the wheels came off this one. It looks terrible to give one team a preseason #1 and have them finish last. Romo falls in with the Eli crowd of mediocre QBs who saw their stats take a step back from last year's passopalooza. Extended poor play and absences from Forte and McCoy did this team in. That was about 40% of the budget and they played awful. Until a couple of weeks ago Andre Johnson had been pretty awful too.

Best buy: Eric Decker ($13). Yeah I got this one. 13 bucks for the #16 receiver is pretty golden.

Worst buy: Andre Johnson ($29). Well with the exception of the best back to back weeks in WR history this was looking like a great call. Injuries to the Texans defense the last few weeks really caused them to open it up to keep pace in the games and Andre Johnson was the prime beneficiary. And that TD issue is still ever present sitting on only 3. Exclude those two monsters and he has 657 yards and 2 tds in 10 games. Basically worse than Desean Jackson this year. Who went for $4. Hopefully someone forgets all this come next year's draft so they spend in the 20s on him again.

Again, not withstanding the issues of the past week this has been one of my favorite seasons of fantasy football, even including the year I dismantled this league in the regular season in 2010. I look forward to an equally competitive and unpredictable playoffs.