Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Final Power Rankings: It's Reckoning Time!

So I feel like I kind of let this space down this year. Three things really made it difficult to get these things out in a timely fashion every two weeks: 1) My primary blog: ifithasballs.blogspot.com 2) The birth of my first child 3) Those insipid Thursday night games that were terrible from a fantasy lineup perspective (and are causing a problem for me this week), a gambling perspective, and an actual performance perspective. I only had about 70 hours from the finish of MNF to the start of TNF to get these in and I basically struggled to find the time. I promise I'll do better next year.

That being said, I'm never ashamed to go into the past and tout my successes and lament my failures in public. So let's see how my preseason rankings and especially what may be some comical inaccuracies in my best/worst buys segment stacked up to reality:

1. Call Me Brady? (Preseason Rank: 9)

Officially (8-5) or unofficially (9-4) finished with the worst record for a league champ in the 4 year history of this league. Which is a pretty interesting historical note.  Also, we get to make fun of one of my predictions right off the bat. I was unnecessarily harsh on Frank Gore (even though it was a common belief he wouldnt be that good this year) and just flat out wrong on Marshawn Lynch. Combined with RG3 (who was a savvy pick and one I meant to make but got distracted by Teach asking me which QB I was going to eventually take) those three relative bargains really made this team strong week in and week out and certainly a preseason rank of 9 was a swing and a miss. I guess it was just hard for me to give this owner the benefit of the doubt based on the past. Solid season notwithstanding the turmoil of the past week.

Best buy: Welker ($25). 13th best receiver for 25 dollars seems actually about right. So obviously not the best buy, but I was right to think this was a good pick.

Worst buy: Lynch ($27). Yeah let's just move on. Nice pick up.

2. Matty rIce (Preseason Rank: 11)

Probably even worse, although if I had won this week he would have been 8th instead of 2nd, but he did finish with the highest points. Every year you find a team that overcomes its crappy draft with solid free agent pickups or get lucky with $1 lottery ticket specials. This was that team. Despite spending $43 bucks on an obviously fragile DeMarco Murray this team found itself two top 10 running backs with Rice and Morris. Despite spending all that money on Ryan, Megatron, Rice, and Murray, this team also found itself a second WR1 with Randall Cobb. Those things make a big difference and did here. I don't think I was too harsh on my ranking in the preseason but this manager struck gold more than once in the bargain bin.

Best buy: Matt Ryan ($26). Good call here again. He was a top 7 QB yielding the same value as $40 Cam Newton and more value than $50 Stafford and a measly 3 pts/game less than the turly expensive Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. While Cobb at $1 was obviously the best buy on this team, Ryan wasn't bad. But this wasn't as much of a steal as I thought heading in.  

Worst Buy: DeMarco Murray ($43). Yes you hear you can't take injury into consideration when drafting but in some cases you really can. This was way too high for a running back that hadn't been healthy in a few years through college and was playing behind that below average O-line with a coach that likes to throw it. Even in the games he played fully he was hit or miss. Just too much money here.

3. The Big Gostkowski (Preseason Rank: 3)

Hey I got one! I find it fascinating I now only start 3 guys I drafted. I usually pride myself on making few moves and drafting well but a few things happened early. Hakeem Nicks (see: DeMarco Murray warning, should have heeded my own advice) and Aaron Hernandez both went down killing 20% of my drafted team value and Chris Johnson was looking to kill another 20% with his horrid start. So I did something I don't do often: traded early. It worked out mutually for Chris and I and was pretty lopsided for Lee and I but those savvy moves shored up a team that was then buoyed by two savvy special teams drafts (Gostkowski and Seattle) and the most active I have ever been I think on the wire: 33 total moves in 13 weeks. I'm pretty happy with the results.

Best buy: Dez Bryant ($14). I didn't like this pick and with Nicks and Lloyd (a HORRIBLE pick) in tow I felt someone might be in the market for Bryant's ceiling but at $14 its a minimal risk. Little did I know he would crush the second half and finally scratch that ceiling. Good call, bad read on the trade by me. 6th best WR in the fantasy regular season.

Worst buy: BenJarvus Green-Ellis ($19). The reason this was a bad buy was that I could have spread that money around for better talent elsewhere. Well up until a few weeks ago this was dead on, now he's the 15th best RB and I think most would pay $19 for that. Nicks or Lloyd really should be here.

4. Mr. Carlson's Class (Preseason Rank: 8)

Wasn't as down on this team in the preseason as others were but I sure bailed quick with that slow start. He took a chance trading a sure fire player in Brady for three could-bes and all three have hit in their own way. Without that trade I think Mr. Carlson's Class might be on the sidelines this postseason. But the luckiest man in fantasy football found his way back and actually is probably the hottest team in the playoffs.

Best buy: Steve Smith ($3) Pffft. What a dumb call. Is he even still in the league or did he get cut halfway through? I have no idea, but when you cant crack the WR straved Rams lineup you're done.

Worst buy: Jimmy Graham ($38). I'm sticking by this. That is entirely too much to spend there and would have been reason number 1 this team failed to produce an all-around competitive lineup. I think it would have been the same without the injury. You can't spend $38 for 5 double digit weeks out of 13.

5. Lamborghini Percy (Preseason Rank: 5)

I had to withstand the urge to put an asterisk by this, but as has been discussed ad nauseum this wasn't like someone cheated so I'll take credit for nailing another pick on the head. I loved that receiving corps and if this team had any kind of competent QB play at all this year it probably would have won the league. Made some curious trades near the end but both seem to have worked out in this team's favor. Harvin hasn't been back since he was traded and Fitz might as well not be on the field. It hasn't exactly helped this team either as it has limped into the playoffs losing 4 of its last 6 (5 of 6?) while scoring 100+ points only once in that stretch.

Best buy:  Michael Turner ($22). Man he's looked terrible but finds a way to score most weeks. Hes also the 14th best RB and just like The Law Firm youll pay about 20 for a top 15 back every time.

Worst buy: Harvin ($24) Only because it was the 5th receiver he drafted, not because Harvin is bad, I actually like Harvin a bit. Turns out he got his trade: Steve Smith for Sproles. I think then this was a good buy, so I'll take a strike on this one.

6. Choppa (Preseason Rank: 4)

And with that I predicted half the playoff teams. Not great. For a team that loves his young guns I find it interesting he has ridden Peyton Manning to this point, but wow Peyton is a machine again. I thought that Doug Martin trade may have sunk him since he got almost nothing of value in the end, but holding onto Richardson and making a nice late season deal parting with AJ Green for Torrey Smith and CJ Spiller has really helped plug that hole. Pretty nice season for the defending champ.

Best buy: Trent Richardson ($26). Pretty good call there, Trent is the 5th highest RB currently.

Worst buy: Rob Gronkowski ($37). He actually was heating up before his broken arm and still sits first despite his injury. I still don't like it, but it's not a great worst buy call.

7. Deep Pockets (Preseason Rank: 6)

Couldn't make up my mind on this team preseason and it looks like I overestimated it a bit and I aonly diagnosed part of the problem. The RBs really sunk this team, even when MoJo was in, but beyond that the QB play was terrible. Eli really no showed this year, and actually with passing numbers way down this year from last year it's no surprise the more mediocre QBs couldn't sustain their success last year. While this team was at the brunt of controversy at the end, I think most would agree it was a long shot to sustain any kind of success in the playoffs.

Best buy: Eli Manning ($24). Hahahaha, whoops. For a guy that didn't miss a game being the 18th overal QB is really bad. Bad call and really Deep Pockets ought to make sure Eli gets the memo on how much he hurt his team.

Worst buy: Rashard Mendenhall ($12). This was a cop-out pick. I was right but I think youd be right 100 times out of 100 if you make a pick like this. Not going to tout this "success:"

8. PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS? (Preseason Rank: 2)

I actually still can not figure out how this team missed the playoffs. Rodgers was excellent and Foster was even more excellent. I guess the WR corps wasn't as good as I thought and Bowe was a disaster, but it was still supplemented with James Jones' great season in replacement of Jennings. I just can't figure it out, I guess maybe he just sat on a few players too long like Bowe and Finley. It's not even like he had a bunch of bad losses, he only lost 1 game he scored over 100, which is like most teams and finished with 9th most points. Another disappointing year for the last playoff virgin in this league.

Best buy: Desean Jackson ($4) I still think it was. That's comically low, even for a WR3/Flex, but definitely a disappointing year for Jackson.

Worst buy: Aaron Rodgers ($63). On some level I was right. The most expensive player by $5 over the 2nd most expensive and by at least $10 more than anyone else just didn't yield that same value. Tom Brady at $52 yields the same value, even in preseason thinking. Still, its hard to complain about going out to get the NFL MVP in the middle of his prime.

9. Blood, Sweat, and Beer (Preseason Rank: 7)

Ah this time being down on this team was correct, although he sure made it interesting towards the end. I thought we could eulogize this team at Week 8 and then they went on a tear only to fall just short. Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson (holy shit what a season) just couldn't do it, much the same way Rodgers and Foster couldn't do it for Rick. Might be a lesson in there. After those two guys there isn't a lot in the way of successes, Roddy White was fine, and so was Miles Austin, but there just weren't enough explosive performances on this team. Starting both Witten and Vernon Davis several weeks probably gives you all you need to know about the depth here. Hopefully we'll see this team back, after all he was #2 on the historical rankings chart coming into this year and puts up some good competition.

Best buy: Miles Austin ($10). Yup I think so, every one will pay $10 for a bonafide WR2 in this league.

Worst Buy: Adrian Peterson ($27). Worst than the Lynch call. He's superhuman. Who comes back from a late season three knee ligament tear to lead the NFL in rushing the next season. Unbelievable. He and Megatron are simply otherworldly in terms of their athleticism.

10. SUHkkake Ejections (Preseason Rank: 12)

I think this was a good call. This team was less than 1 full point away in two games from being 4-9 and actually in last place. Spent a ton of money on running backs that all were busts. In fact this is a pretty good all-bust lineup on its own. I am really disappointed in McFadden though. What an awful season for the several weeks he was healthy. Probably took too long to turn one of those 3 backs into something more valuable. Also probably shouldn't draft so many running backs.

Best buy: Ryan Mathews ($33). God he's terrible. Maybe it's the O-line, maybe it's him. All I know is that $33 didn't yield much.

Worst buy: All other running backs not named Mathews and McFadden. ($41 combined). This included Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene, Roy Helu, Donald Brown, and Felix Jones. Looks like I was right on here.

11. I've Got Gronkchitis!!! (Preseason Rank: 10)

Made some moves early, but Cam Newton and Steve Smith combined were so bad it put this team in a big hole recordwise it just couldn't get out of. Actually, heading into Week 12, this team hadn't score that many points, so the unlucky card wasn't playable. Then he puts up 150+ back to back weeks and now has the 3rd most points. Still, this wasn't a playoff team and that was apparent from the start. Too many spare parts and not enough elite talent.

Best buy: Stevie Johnson ($15). He actually could fulfill that 1000 and 7 I said earlier, he's at 700 and 5 with 4 games to go so I guess he was useful. He just kinda qualifies as a spare part like so many others on this team.

Worst buy: McGahee and Sproles ($41). I still think he could've done better with this money, but it wasn't as bad as I felt at the time. Cam for $40 was also looking terrible but somehow hes now the 6th ranked QB.

12. Raider Nation (Preseason Rank: 1)

Geez the wheels came off this one. It looks terrible to give one team a preseason #1 and have them finish last. Romo falls in with the Eli crowd of mediocre QBs who saw their stats take a step back from last year's passopalooza. Extended poor play and absences from Forte and McCoy did this team in. That was about 40% of the budget and they played awful. Until a couple of weeks ago Andre Johnson had been pretty awful too.

Best buy: Eric Decker ($13). Yeah I got this one. 13 bucks for the #16 receiver is pretty golden.

Worst buy: Andre Johnson ($29). Well with the exception of the best back to back weeks in WR history this was looking like a great call. Injuries to the Texans defense the last few weeks really caused them to open it up to keep pace in the games and Andre Johnson was the prime beneficiary. And that TD issue is still ever present sitting on only 3. Exclude those two monsters and he has 657 yards and 2 tds in 10 games. Basically worse than Desean Jackson this year. Who went for $4. Hopefully someone forgets all this come next year's draft so they spend in the 20s on him again.

Again, not withstanding the issues of the past week this has been one of my favorite seasons of fantasy football, even including the year I dismantled this league in the regular season in 2010. I look forward to an equally competitive and unpredictable playoffs.

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