Welcome back to another year of Get Your Popcorn Ready Fantasy Football! As is tradition, and by semi-popular request, here is a another draft recap from yours truly. Before I get right in, a refresher on how I grade these. First, think of the positions as tiers, if you are somewhere in 1-6 I like your team enough to think it's a playoff worthy team. If you are 7-12 it generally means the opposite. Inside those tiers are more tiers, generally broken up into quarters: 1-3 are my most likely bets to make the playoffs, 4-6 are my next three picks into the playoffs, though I'm certainly not as sure, 7-9 are teams I think could have a shot but to me have some fundamental flaw, and 10-12 are teams I generally regard as just too weak to make it.
Also, I put in my judgment on the best buy and worst buy for each team. There are a ton of factors I take into play on this, and its really subjective, and usually relies on an overall evaluation of how the entire draft played out, or on which other player that person could've used that money, or my feelings on the value for that player should, or the rest of the roster makeup for the team.
I have added a few new wrinkles this year! The first will be Yahoo's draft day projected record in parenthesis following the team names so we can see how wrong Yahoo is (no this has nothing to do with the fact that they think I'm a 3-10 team). The second will be the dollar value of their team had they drafted the same player last year which is neat to see who has players that were draft day values last year and had their prices skyrocket this year, or went after some 2013 busts at cheaper prices. The last parenthesis will be last year's finish.
With that out of the way, I have a few observations I wanted to share before I continue:
1. Special teams are en vogue this year? 7 kickers/defenses went for more than a dollar. I understand that people think they are buying top flight talent or consistency with these picks, but at the end of the draft I'm sure you'd rather have a little extra buying power to get those guys who actually do make the difference in fantasy leagues. After all, the difference between the top kicker and the 12th kicker last year was 2.5 points per game and halfof the top 12 kickers from last year went undrafted last year (Vinatieri, Crosby, Novak, Carpenter, Folk, Feely).
2. The top tier guys were more expensive than last year. Only 8 RBs went at about the $50+ threshold this year compared to 9 last year, but they were certainly more expensive. The 9 RBs last year went for an average of $56, while the 8 RBs this year went for an average of $59.50, including an incredible 5 at 60+. The price increase of top tier WRs was even more dramatic with 5 guys going around the 50+ threshold compared to last years 2. If you wanted a "first round pick" this year you had to be ready to spend.
3. This is the 5th year this league has drafted via auction draft and it's the first time we have a team that didn't spend $30+ on a single player. I've often wondered how successful you could make a team drafting a bunch of mid round talent and we have our test case. It's neat to see that after 5 years new things are still popping up in auctions and a reason why it's absolutely the king of draft methods.
One last note, last year I did this, I nailed four out of the six playoff teams, and in many cases either hit their final spot exactly or came within 1. Still, like any subjective rankings it is just one man's opinions, but it's a fun exercise, and with my track record I'm confident I generally know what I'm talking about. On to the rankings!
1. Deep Pockets (5th) ($252) (2013- 1st) - Ah, our defending champion. Certainly went top heavy with Brees, Bryant, Cobb, and Martin. I like that top 4 as much as any top 4 in the league. I'm interested to see what effect James Jones and increased usage has on Cobb, I'm not terribly scared off by his injury, but you never know how a key part of offense leaving will affect a player. Jarrett Boykin is no James Jones in that offense and I just wonder if Cobb may start to see different, tougher coverage assignments than he previous had. I'd still be high on him. What I'm not confident in is the rest of this team. There are some interesting names on this list, including Tate and Kendall Wright and Ray Rice, but I don't see any real impact players in that group or in the $1 fliers. However, I think the overall talent of this team gives it the best shot to get in the playoffs.
Best Pick: Randall Cobb $33. I think he has potential to greatly outplay his price tag and to provide similar or better value than those players around the same or more expensive than he was in the draft, like Keenan Allen ($29), Antonio Brown ($39), Alshon Jeffery ($43), Julio Jones ($49). I'm not worried about concerns either with him or Rodgers.
2. Blountman N' Chronic (11th) ($194) (2013 - 5th) - Best WRs award goes here. Julio Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson, Percy Harvin, Eric Decker, Justin Hunter, Marqise Lee. You aren't going to find a better slate of WRs on any other team, including mine and I own the preseason top 2. But he paid for it elsewhere on the roster especially at RB. Rolling into the season with Spiller and Richardson as the starters and West and Freeman as longshot backups will be a problem all season. Of course if Julio Jones plays all year and no regressions from Jeffery and Jackson, and Harvin plays a full slate, well he could probably go with no RBs and be just fine. I don't like the Rivers call as the only QB on the roster. With the $10 spent on Decker I would've like to see this team end up with a backup QB like Russel or Cam or RG3, someone with potential to be top 5-8 as a backup to Rivers in his first season without Whisenhunt. This should be an interesting team this year and certainly playoff worthy.
Best Pick: Vincent Jackson $22. This is an unsexy pick, but at a tremendous value and at the WR3 position to boot. I would've love to put Percy here at $14 but he's just not trustworthy enough to be a regular starter outside of the flex position. But $22 I feel is a steal for a perennial top 15 (#6 in 2012, #14 in 2013).
Worst Pick: Trent Richardson $10. Kind of nitpicking here, he spent all of his money on good players. I could go CJ Spiller at $20 here but I think he'll be ok at that price or Philip Rivers at $7 but I think Rivers has a chance to perform at QB1 level, and if not, dropping him won't hurt. But Trent Richardson has been drafted to be a starting running back all season for this team and even though the price tag was low, I think this was a case of throwing away $10. He looked god awful last year behind a bad O-line and even his rookie year he didn't get to 1,000 yards with 267 carries, despite running half the time behind future hall of famer Joe Thomas. He's basically a billionaire's version of BenJarvus Green-Ellis. 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If he's lucky.
3. LeVeon Bell Cow (9th) ($147) (2013 - 10th) - Every year I place myself 3rd so take this with a grain of salt (especially since I think I have a very good squad). I went into this draft hell bent on not spending $40 on my bench like I have the last couple of years and I think the project was a success. I've felt like recent years top running backs have struggled to maintain their overall value, I mentioned it during the draft but in most cases half of the preseason top 10-12 running backs bust on their value. Meanwhile top tier WRs seem to hold their value. Spending $113 on two WRs isn't exactly value but they are less risky than 60 bucks on a running back. This season I went back to something I used to do early on in my fantasy career which was rely on my ability to find valuable cheap running backs. I spent a total of $56 on my running backs and I'm confident 1 or 2 will pop for RB1 value. I was able to back up my mancrush investment (Jay Cutler) with Cam Newton for only $4. I will definitely have early trouble with that WR3 spot until one or more of Hopkins, Randle, or Wheaton settles in. I like this team much much more than previous teams I've had, and at the very least I'll have fun watching Megatron.
Best Buy: So many to choose from, but I'll settle on Pierre Thomas at $3. This guy had a 1000 and 5 last year dealing with Darren Sproles in the passing game, with Sproles gone I can envision a couple hundred more yards and another TD or 2. Great value at the flex spot for $3.
Worst Buy: Joique Bell $22. I believe in him but any draft value I was getting out of him is wasted at a $22 price point. Especially since it's not like Reggie Bush is just going to disappear from the map and he went for $8 cheaper. I was a slave to position scarcity and a hunch that Bell will be the most valuable back in a good offense.
4. Blood Sweat & Beers (3rd) ($231) (2013 - 11th) - I have a weird gut feeling about this team, even though i thought spending $7 on special teams players to be the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. Looking at the team you like Manning and Marshall but people can make all sorts of arguments against Lynch, Chris Johnson, Rashad Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, and T.Y Hilton. But I think on the whole this team will actually be a tougher out than expected. Lynch is starting to teeter on that usage/age problem, Rashad Jennings is older than people realize and the Giants O-line sucks, Jeremy Maclin can't stay healthy, Pep Hamilton doesn't know how to use TY Hilton, and Chris Johnson is, well, Chris Johnson. But at various levels all of these players have had a lot of success in their careers and they don't all have to put it together to be a very good team. I'm picking with my gut here but I think this is a playoff team, of course maybe that's because he has Peyton.
Best Pick: T.Y Hilton $11. I regret not pursuing him more, but I was in a weird spot in the draft after spending most of the rest of my money on my 3 RBs and QB when he came up. They started to figure out how to use him better towards the end of the season an I'm confident his usage will look better with other receivers around liek Wayne and to a much less extent Hakeem Nicks.
Worst Pick: Rashad Jennings $14. I can easily go with the $7 dollars used on defenses and kickers but that's too easy. I had Rashad Jennings at the end last year and he was popping. It's clear he has the feature role in New York. The real question is how useful can he be in that offense and can he bear the load the entire season as a 29 year old who has never had 200 touches (had 199 last year). It's not much to spend but there were some other higher upside guys with similar roles to go after with that money (plus the $4-5 left over from not spending on special teams).
5. Let's Do This!!!!! (1st) ($214) (2013 - NR) - One of our rookies this year, he was not shy about throwing his money in this pot spending $173 in the first 57 picks. I really like this team, even though I will still maintain that $47 at TE is a waste, despite our defending champ riding Graham to the title last year for nearly the same price. But despite spending 111 between Peterson and Graham I thought he filled out the rest of his Week 1 starting lineup well with Torrey Smith, Toby Gerhart, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Cameron, and Emmanuel Sanders. The only thing holding this team back is its QB, Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill might be the worst QB tandem ever drafted in this league. The team has a lot of quality and will be a threat every week but I could see some weeks where this team just no shows due to the inconsistency of many of its players. I just couldn't put him higher with those QBs.
Best Buy: Jordan Cameron $13. So this might be an odd choice on a team with Graham, but again our league winner won with two TEs in Graham and Davis and I can envision Cameron performing up to the #2 or #3 TE in the league. They just have to get him the ball...
Worst Buy: Toby Gerhart $21. I don't hate the pick, but at $21 there are a lot of other RBs I would rather have a share of in much better offenses. That said, he is all they have there at RB (freaking Denard Robinson is the #2), we'll see if he can actually weather a 300 touch season.
6. Straight Cash Homey! (7th) ($99) (2013- 3rd) - This team went all-in on 5 players, which certainly falls in line with how this manager likes to draft. I like Forte, even at $60, as anyone knows who seen my NFC predictions knows I'm high on the Bears especially their offense. Also as a previous owner of Jordy I like the pick. Where this team gets really unpredictable is in that Bernard/Crabtree/Patterson trio. The ceiling is high and the floor is low on this team depending on how these players pan out. I have shares of Bernard but none of Crabtree and Patterson, I think the $31 used there would have been better spent on more reliable talent with a higher volume of targets, especially since this team went all in on spec plays at WR with Evans, Cooks, Matthews, and Jones. Nelson isn't enough to carry this team at WR if none of those other plays yield top 20 WR value.
Best Buy: Russell Wilson $3. People think of Seattle as a run heavy offense, but thanks to Russell's selective scrambling he actually has been a Top 10 fantasy QB in total points both years which means he has a good floor. I do worry about the lack of receiving weapons there, especially if Harvin misses a handful of games, but at $3 to get a player whose floor is as a starter is a nice buy.
Worst Buy: Cordarrelle Patterson $18. Too much, are we really expecting something like 1100 and 7 from him? You would think with his insane athleticism his yards per catch would be something high, but it was actually a pretty low 10.4 last year. Are Cassel and Bridgewater going to give him more opportunities down field? I think all the value of Patterson is out the window at $18. All sorts of players I'd rather have around that price or less include DeSean Jackson ($11), Roddy White ($19), Torrey Smith ($17), Michael Floyd ($13), T.Y. Hilton ($11), on and on the list can go.
7. KA9ERNICK (4th) ($163) (2013 - 6th) - Yeah this team has two of my RB1 busts with Bell and Stacy (OK Stacy was priced as the 13th RB which makes him a RB2). Seems like much of the rest of the league agrees since the total price tag on these used to be sure fire starters was $70 total, relatively cheap considering McCoy's price alone at $68. Lots of grumbling about 2nd backs working in on both teams, probably more so than any other top 13 RB besides Gio Bernard, and I believe it in both cases. Despite what I thought were the two worst picks, this team backed up his potential busts pretty well with the always steady Gore (31? Who cares?), a rookie in Bishop Sankey who will probably take over around the time this team is tired of starting Zac Stacy and his consistent 7 pts a game, and Knowshon Moreno who looks like he might be able to take the 60% of the timeshare in Miami's supposed fast pace offense. Don't much like the rest of the team though. Antonio Brown should be fine, he'll get his, but I worry about Johnson and whatever dud he throws out there at WR3. Nick Foles isn't worth the $10. He'll miss DeSean and if Maclin continues his pattern of missing time or playing at less than 100% this team actually lacks some passing weapons. Kaepernick is a capable backup and was a smart choice to grab to backup the unsure thing in Foles, but he can be so maddeningly inconsistent that this team may run across situations where its very little from the QB position. Overall I think this lacks the true week to week firepower to be a playoff team, but it is deep (except at WR) and oftentimes those deep teams find a way in.
Best Pick: Bishop Sankey $10. If you did any ADP or auction value research you read a lot of stuff about this guy going way too high. He's clearly the most talented back in Tennessee and just has to fight through Shonn Greene to get the bulk of the work. It won't happen Week 1 (although he's just finally moved to #2 on the depth chart), but this team doesn't need it to. He has 3 other backs that are tabbed as Week 1 starters (even if they might underwhelm) and can sit on him for a few weeks until he grows his role. I'm a believer in Bishop Sankey and would've like to have him, but at that point in the draft I only had 1 RB and he can't be counted on to provide any value the first couple of weeks, but in the right situation he could be a great value. I like this pick a lot.
Worst Pick: Zac Stacy $31. This has nothing to do with Bradford. Bradford was a dink and dunk QB who could only manage a game. Shaun Hill,a s long as he has a grasp of the system, will offer the same value as Bradford in terms of keeping defenses honest. This has everything to do with the writing on the wall, and the writing spells B-e-n-n-y C-u-n-n-i-n-g-h-a-m. Here's a fun fact: In the 3rd preseason game AKA The Dress Rehearsal, Benny started over Zac Stacy. Sure the Rams know what they have in Stacy and probably want to see what they have in Benny. "Don't read too much into this" says Jeff Fisher. But do you know who else started that game? Reserve guard Davin Joseph. Do you know who is no longer a reserve, but is actually starting Week 1? Davin Joseph. I firmly believe that even if Stacy remains the starter he will lose the volume he had last year (250 carries, less than 1,000 yards) and without that he is no more than really a flex play because he is another one of those Trent Richardson plodder types. Lots of other questionable backs with much higher ceilings I would've rather had for around that same price point.
8. Raider Nation (6th) ($148) (2013 - 7th) - ALL IN. $128 on two running backs is the all-in approach. I actually like the 2 he chose to hold most of their value. Maybe not $128 in value but that's just the going rate for the top RBs and so you'll never get the value you want from them. You just pay for the consistent good performances you think you are going to get week to week. So the make or break here is the rest of the team. I'm OK with Stafford, maybe not at $22, although I was the one bidding him, so I was willing to break my bank for the Stafford/Megatron/Bell connection, so I have no complaints there. But the rest of the team is highly questionable, especially at those 3 WRs spots and the flex spot. Lots of uncertainty and inconsistency there. I'm just not sure what to do with this team. A lot depends on McCoy and Lacy holding that 16-20 pt a week value they have last year. If you get there with Stafford at 20 a week you've got your 50-60/week in 3 players and just need the last 7 to get you the last 50-60. I just don't know that the current state of the roster can get there. This team will be competitive a lot but the margin is razor thin and oftentimes it backfires. Just out of the playoffs is where i have this team.
Best Pick: Mike Wallace $12. The most capable on this team of busting way out over his price tag. Miami looks to give him the ball anywhere they can and even if hes inefficient, fantasy doesn't care, we just like the volume.
Worst Pick: Eddie Lacy $60. I know I spent $113 on two WRs, but I've maintained all along that top WRs hold their value better. Plus that is still $15 less than this team spent on McCoy and Lacy. I just don't think a team can survive a season spending $128 on two players unless it gets extremely fortunate with their lottery tickets and/or waivers. Lacy was good, he was after all the 6th best running back last year despite missing essentially two games, but I'm not sure how much better he can be and it's not like he was close to putting up the Charles/McCoy seasons of last year. Maybe he will this year, but I wouldn't bet the farm on Lacy after investing in McCoy.
9. 1st & 10 (12th) ($205) (2013 - NR) - Our other rookie entrant this year, he put together the aforementioned team of players with price tags under $30. Despite spending double digits on a whopping 10/16 players, this team still managed to commit the cardinal sin of leaving significant ($17) money on the table. I initially had this as my worst team, but I changed my mind after some reflection. I like several of the players on this team to outstrip their value and I think this makes it a dangerous team. There are no obvious holes anywhere (although RB may become one very quickly), even though it has none of the positional studs (except Orange Julius). I just think the lack of high scorers throughout the roster will keep this team out of the playoffs. But I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong.
Best Pick: Victor Cruz $24. The offensive scheme change and lack of any other real options will allow Cruz to get all the targets he can handle. As we've seen in the past he can be tough as nails to guard against in the short passing game and can turn a 5 yard route into a 50 yard touchdown. Sneaky value for someone who has potential to be a top 5 WR, or because Eli is so bad he just busts outright. I choose the former.
Worst Pick: Tom Brady $16/Tony Romo $15. Kind of a cop out picking two, but collectively they make the worst picks. Nothing wrong with 2 QBs, but spending $31 on two QBs is the problem. Just spend $30+ on an elite one or use the $15/16 in conjunction with that leftover $17 to buy a more reliable RB option. But certainly no overspending here on this team.
10. Hurricane Ditka (8th) ($279!) (2013 - 9th) - Definitely went after the 2014 bargain RB1s with Foster and Morris. I did that last year with Ridley and Chris Johnson. No bueno. This issue may be compounded by how thin it is to start the season as he bought a whopping nine players for $1 each. While this makes it easier for this team to drop and reload it's impossible to predict how it will surf the waiver wire and between underwhelming RB performances and an WR corps full of what I think are overrated guys, I find this team will be struggling quite often.
Best Buy: Aaron Rodgers $37. No reason to think he won't get through the season healthy and went for several dollars cheaper than his similar tiered counterparts in Brees and Manning.
Worst Buy: Arian Foster $35. I have little faith that Arian can stay on the field at this stage in his career and he no longer enjoys the same offensive scheme under Gary Kubiak that led to his success a few years ago.
11. Candlestickit2U (2nd) ($141) (2013 - 4th) - Here's where I'm going to earn my bread. Jamaal Charles is going to be one of the worst picks for value this year. That's right, Jamaal Charles who singlehandedly won some playoff games for people last year will grossly underperform that price tag. That offense is a mess, and the offensive line is so much worse than last year. As for the rest of the team it's one of the riskiest teams drafted relying on Andre Ellington to pick up whatever slack Charles leaves behind, trusting Gronk and Welker to survive the season (Ed. Note: I wrote this before Welker got slapped with his amphetamine suspension) and to get another decent year out of Matt Ryan when their offensive line is having its own issues and red zone safety blanket Tony Gonzalez is gone. Yahoo may love this team but I feel like this might be one of the bigger bust teams.
Best Buy: Michael Floyd $13. Like this pick a lot. It's his time to shine in an offense that I think will be passing quite a bit and with Fitzgerald who will continue to draw a lot of the primary coverage. Good value there at $13.
Worst Buy: Jamaal Charles $62. Of course if I'm Keller I can't fault him for spending $62 because it's Jamaal Charles and most fantasy experts are incapable of thinking second level on top tier players so that was the appropriate price for him. I wouldn't have spent more than $20. That's how much I think he's going to bust.
12. Mr. Carlson's Class (10th) ($118) (2013 - 2nd) - Our perennial championship contender had what I think is one of his rougher drafts. You could tell he was getting bid up more than he was comfortable on his players and I think it drove him into a big mistake. I like DeMarco Murray, even though I panned him last year when Bostick took him in the $30s, but last year's health might have been an aberration. Either way he is not so talented as to put up 2000 total yards or is such a focal point in the offense as to warrant going for $58. That's easily my worst pick of the draft. I think Montee is going to be a stud, but after that I only really like Roddy White on this team. I have this gut feeling Keenan Allen (and Philip Rivers and the entire passing offense) might see some regression this year with Whisenhunt gone. I also have this gut feeling that Andrew Luck might be more frustrating to own than people think. That line sucks, he lacks a running game, and the defense I think is going to put him in much tougher spots this year. Easier division schedule but I would've rather had a number of other QBs for the same price or much less (Romo, Cutler, Newton, Wilson) I truly believe that at this point we have the first team with which Chris will miss the playoffs.
Best Pick: Roddy White $19. I think it has gotten to the point where Julio now draws the tough coverage. Roddy is older but he's always been consistent and WRs just don't age the same way as RBs and Gonzalez's atargets have to go somewhere. If Roddy starts drawing second or third cornerbacks he's so good and smart he'll outstrip this value easily. I like him more than other similar veteran guys who went for a little more like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.
Worst Pick: DeMarco Murray $58. I think I said enough of him, and I think the price tag speaks for itself. When you look at the rest of the roster this was a player he should have bowed out on at $57.
Well that's all, folks. The season starts tomorrow and one thing I am certain of is that we all can't wait for the real games to start. I hope you enjoyed the read, this was hands down the hardest ranking I ever had to do. I had to write out everyone's summaries and reflect on the teams for a few days before I could pin down my best thoughts on where everyone will finish. I don't think any team is shoe in for the playoffs and I dont think any team is definitely going to miss them. Should make for yet another wild ride this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment